Key takeaways
- Capacity is booked weeks ahead; a standard lead time is not a promise.
- Seasonal peaks in Q3 and Q4 push non-seasonal orders back.
- A forecast with a schedule buys capacity better than a large single order.
Capacity is the number of units a factory can produce in a period, and a factory’s schedule is how those units are allocated across customers. A lead time quoted to you is an average, and the queue you actually join depends on when you book, how much you commit, and whether the factory’s biggest customer has a peak.
1. Capacity is a calendar
A line running 16 hours a day for 25 days produces a fixed number of units. Every order takes a slot in that calendar. When the calendar is full, a new order waits regardless of its size. The relevant question is not “what is your lead time” but “when is your next free slot”.
2. Seasonality
The cosmetic calendar peaks between August and November as brands prepare for holiday and for spring launches. A non-seasonal order placed in September waits behind the seasonal orders. Placing it in June or in January is cheaper and faster for the same product.
3. Minimum run and changeover
A small order consumes a changeover slot that a larger order would use more efficiently. A factory may decline a small order in a busy period or price it to reflect the lost capacity. That is a rational response rather than an unfriendly one.
4. The forecast
A twelve-month forecast with a schedule is what allows a factory to reserve capacity. A single purchase order with no forecast is scheduled opportunistically. The forecast does not have to be binding, but it has to be credible and roughly accurate.
5. Deposits and priority
A deposit converts an expression of interest into a booking. A factory that has not received a deposit has not committed a slot, whatever the email says. Paying the deposit early buys the slot; paying it late buys the next available one.
6. Peak pricing
Capacity is priced by scarcity. A busy factory quotes higher in September than in February for the same product. A buyer who can shift the schedule saves more than a buyer who negotiates the unit price.
7. Buffer stock
Holding six to eight weeks of finished stock decouples production from demand and lets the brand order in a low season. The cost is warehousing and cash, and it is usually cheaper than the expedited freight and the missed launch that a stock-out causes.
8. Multi-site
A supplier with two sites can shift an order between them, which is a real capacity advantage. A single-site supplier has a hard ceiling. When a factory’s capacity is tight, the number of sites matters more than the unit price.
9. Communication
A weekly production update is more useful than a monthly report. A brand that learns of a delay three weeks after it happened has lost the chance to replan. Ask for the schedule and the actual against it, every week.
10. The contract
A supply agreement should include a capacity commitment, a lead time commitment and a remedy for a missed date. Without a remedy, the commitment is a courtesy. With one, the factory plans around it.
11. Where it fits
Capacity planning runs across the body oil range; the lead time detail continues in the lead time entry.
Reference: Factory capacity data and scheduling records, 2025
